Estimation of Uncertainty of Wind Energy Predictions: With Application to Weather Routing and Wind Power Generation

Estimation of Uncertainty of Wind Energy Predictions: With Application to Weather Routing and Wind Power Generation

by David Zastrau

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Overview

Currently, a new generation of fuel-efficient ships, which use wind force in addition to conventional propulsion technology, is being developed. This study describes a mathematical method for a probabilistic estimate of the wind propulsion force on a ship route. The method is based on quantile regression, which makes it suitable for various ship routes with variable weather conditions. Furthermore, the author takes different macro weather situations into account for the calculation of the statistical distributions. He validates the results for a multi-purpose carrier, a ship route in the North Atlantic Ocean and archived weather forecasts. It showed that the wind force can be estimated more accurately if the macro weather situation is taken into account properly.

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9783631718858
Publisher: Peter Lang GmbH, Internationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
Publication date: 03/03/2017
Series: Maritime Logistik / Maritime Logistics Series , #9
Edition description: New
Pages: 123
Product dimensions: 5.83(w) x 8.27(h) x (d)

About the Author

David Zastrau studied Computer Science at the University of Bremen where he received his PhD. He researches artificial intelligence, maritime logistics, as well as weather and wave forecast accuracy.

Table of Contents

Uncertainty in Wind Power Generation and Weather Routing - Offshore Wind Power Logistics - Weather Routing - Ship Propulsion Energy - Wind Propulsion Systems - Statistical Pattern matching - Uncertainty in Weather Predictions - Estimation of Prediction Uncertainty - Prediction Intervals - Ensemble Prediction Systems - Quantile Regression - Local Energy Distribution Moments

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